The Earthquake Through the French Political System
On May 7th the people of the French Republic will return to the ballot box to select their new president. The two contenders, Emmanuel Macron of En Marche and Marie Le Pen of the National Front, were selected two weeks ago in the first round of the election. This is an election unique in French History. Neither of the two candidates are from established political parties.
En Marche was founded less than a year ago and the National Front, despite being founded 44 years ago, was traditionally located on the far fringe of French politics. Neither of the two parties hold seats in the National Assembly, another first for a French presidential election. Despite this Macron and Le Pen are the final two contenders and by next week one of them will be on the way to the President’s office.
This may seem a bit like political anarchy–two anti establishment candidates from non-traditional political parties with no legislative presence squaring off to be president–but was in fact quite predictable. At the risk of sounding boastful, your columnist called it months ago.
In an opinion piece cum American political history titled “the New American Political Divide”, I predicted that the national political paradigm of the United States would shift from liberal/progressive versus conservative to nationalist versus globalist. Macron and Le Pen fit perfectly into this new paradigm.
Le Pen is a classic nationalist. She combines social conservatism and xenophobia with anti-capitalism and isolationism. She supports ramping up restrictions on immigration and Islam, while at the same time vouches for canceling trade deals, holding a referendum on the European Union and growing the already monstrous and bloated French welfare state. As predicted, she has brought together France’s hard left and hard right, making huge gains among unions and factory workers, the traditional domain of left-wing French parties. This new reality was exemplified when Jean-Luc Melenchon (a hard left candidate who came in fourth place in the first round) vowed not support Macron. Le Pen is a synthesis of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders into a heaping anti-establishment and anti-international package.
Macron, on the other hand, is a virtual copy-paste of the globalism I predicted for the future of the Democratic party. The 39-year-old former investment banker combines an optimistic social liberalism with an embrace of open markets, capitalism, trade and internationalism. Like the predicted globalists, he does well with urban professionals, the young, business people and hawks, demographics historically divided between multiple parties. Macron has offered full-throated endorsement of the European Union, seeking to tighten the pact as opposed to destroying it as Le Pen and other nationalists would prefer. He also promises to “unstuck” the French economy by loosening the nation’s incredibly restrictive and byzantine labor laws, consolidating the pension system, cutting regulation and increasing business friendliness. His rallying of social and economic liberalism makes him unique among today’s traditional political parties, which are either socially liberal (the Democrats) or economically liberal (the Republicans).
Whoever wins on the 7th will send an earthquake through the French political system. The major parties of France are liable for a break up. Legislative elections will be held in June. The pro-labor wing of the Socialist party and the anti-immigrant wing of the Republican party will likely join Le Pen in the event of her victory, while the socially liberal and immigrant wing of the Socialist party and the capitalist/internationalist wing of the Republican party are liable to join with Macron if he manages to win this Sunday.
Either way, the face of the Western political system will completely change. The politics of France and the United States have always been closely bound, going back to the revolutions that transformed our two countries. What starts in one has a habit of spreading to the other.