{"id":7186,"date":"2025-01-17T11:08:05","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T16:08:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/?p=7186"},"modified":"2025-01-17T11:08:19","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T16:08:19","slug":"what-to-expect-when-trump-is-in-office-a-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/what-to-expect-when-trump-is-in-office-a-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect When Trump is in Office: A Forecast\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Media Provided by: Wilson Urist \u201827, Fiona Miller \u201826, and Cassie Ball \u201826. Mixed media with clippings from: <\/em>The Washington Post, <\/em>The New York Times, <\/em>The Atlantic Journal-Constitution, <\/em>The Wall Street Journal, and <\/em>Le Monde.<\/em>
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The Uncertainty of the Transition: From Election to Inauguration\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u200b\u200b<\/strong>News Analysis by Wilson Urist \u201827, Fiona Miller \u201826, and Cassie Ball \u201826 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, students across the Grace Church High School experienced a day that felt somewhat like any other\u2014except now, the student body knew who the president-elect was. Significant events often come with a mix of emotions. This day was no different. No matter their feelings, students were comforted in the school\u2019s safe spaces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between November 6th and January 20th, 2025, the United States faced a transitional period of anticipation, caught between the knowns of the past and the uncertainties of the incoming Trump administration. While the country moves toward the official start of President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s second term, many Americans wonder what the future holds. His second term will almost certainly differ from the first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article will explore what to expect during Trump\u2019s second administration and how his leadership style will evolve. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

America Hires a Strongman<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On November 6, The New York Times<\/em> published an analysis titled \u201cAmerica Hires a Strongman<\/a>.\u201d The term \u201cstrongman\u201d is often used to describe leaders who, rather than rely on democratic norms or systems of checks and balances, seek to centralize power around themselves. They are a \u201cgovernment ruler who concentrates the power of the state in his person\u2014or tries to\u2014to the detriment of the rule of law; he also claims to embody the people<\/a>,\u201d a judgment attributed to journalist Gideon Rachman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his book, The Age of the Strongman: How the Cult of the Leader Threatens Democracy Around the World<\/em>, Rachman writes that \u201cstrongman leaders want to be regarded as indispensable. Their goal is to convince them that they alone can save the nation.\u201d This is a central theme of Trump\u2019s political career. He\u2019s positioned himself as the only person who can fix what is broken in America. His slogan, \u201cMake America Great Again<\/em>,\u201d is not just about nostalgia for a past era\u2013\u2013 but it is also a claim to personal greatness, implying that only he can return America to a state of prosperity and global dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attacking the Institutions<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the clearest ways Trump mirrors other global strongmen is through his aggressive stance against independent institutions\u2013particularly the media and courts. Strongman leaders often see these institutions as safeguards to democracy and obstacles in their path to power. For this reason, they attack the media to control the narrative and weaken any criticism. Trump\u2019s relationship with the press has been a prime example of this strategy. Time and time again, he has labeled critical media outlets as \u201cfake news<\/a>,\u201d a tactic that not only discredits the press but also encourages those who follow him to reject any information that contradicts his views. Trump even went as far as calling The New York Times, CNN, and NBC News \u201cthe enemy of the American people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Media Provided from X.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These statements rally his base by presenting the media as part of a larger conspiracy against Americans while simultaneously undermining the very institutions that hold Trump accountable. By framing the media as an enemy of the American people, Trump taps into a psychological dynamic where his supporters feel victimized by an elite, out-of-touch establishment. In Karen M. Stenner\u2019s The Authoritarian Dynamic<\/em><\/a>, published in 2005, she explores how authoritarian personalities are shaped by feelings of victimization and perceived threats from outliers. This sense of victimization fosters a \u201cthem vs. us\u201d mentality, intensifying loyalty to Trump as the only possible figure who is capable of defending the interests of \u201ctrue Americans\u201d against an elitist group. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rachman, on this topic, notes that \u201cstrongmen go after the media and courts as they are the most important institutions for a strongman leader to control.\u201d Throughout his first term, Trump attempted to delegitimize the media and has continued to do so outside of office. He also used the courts to solidify his agenda, with his appointments of conservative judges\u2014including three Supreme Court justices\u2014likely to influence legal decisions for decades to come<\/a>. His second term will see a continuation of this strategy, reinforcing his control over the judicial system while further diminishing the role of the independent press. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Erosion of Civil Liberties and the Rhetoric of Division<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another common trait of the strongman leadership style is the exploitation of national division. In a polarized society, strongmen thrive by positioning themselves as the leader who can unite the \u201creal\u201d people against perceived enemies\u2013whether they be political opponents, the media, or minority groups. Trump has shown himself to be adept at using divisive rhetoric to consolidate power, whether it was inflammatory remarks about immigrants<\/a> or his claims that the 2020 election was \u201cstolen.\u201d<\/a> These remarks undermined the state of American democracy. Trump has repeatedly framed the country as being in a crisis requiring a strong figure like himself to restore order. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Age of the Strongman<\/em>, the author argues that \u201ca bitterly divided country makes it easier to persuade followers to tolerate the erosion of civil liberties in the interests of political victory over domestic enemies.\u201d This has played out time and time again under Trump\u2019s leadership, especially in the aftermath of the 2020 election. His false claims of voter fraud and his attempts to overturn the election results were not just a way to maintain power. They are a way to divide the country further and villainize those who disagree with him. This creates an erosion of democratic norms, whether through attacks on the legitimacy of political opponents or elections and stifling free speech\u2014this is now seen as acceptable in the name of \u201csaving\u201d the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vanderbilt\u2019s Unity Index measures <\/a>\u201cfive inputs, including publicly available survey data on strong presidential disapproval, political and ideological extremism, social trust, political and social unrest, and measurements of Congressional polarization to provide a quarterly and replicable measurement of Americans’ level of political consensus.\u201d Their findings for the year 2024 suggest that \u201cthe number of Americans who identify as either extremely liberal or extremely conservative has increased<\/a>,\u201d meaning that the national divide increased during the election year. This political division was beneficial for Trump\u2019s consolidation of power. As the electorate became more ideologically polarized, Trump was able to frame himself as the sole leader capable of protecting \u201creal\u201d America from what he portrayed as a radical, out-of-touch opposition. Like many of his strongmen predecessors<\/a>, Trump thrives in times of national crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Americans look ahead to Trump\u2019s second term, these patterns will likely continue and intensify. He will continue to attack institutions that challenge his authority while doubling down on rhetoric that has helped him maintain a loyal base of supporters. Americans can expect him to focus on consolidating power, potentially by executive orders, appointing more biased justices, and undermining the legitimacy of his opponents, both in the media and within the government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Problematic New National Security Team <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past months, President-elect Trump\u2019s nominees for important national security posts have demonstrated an overall lack of character and qualification. Many of them have furthered anti-democratic policies in their political pasts. Additionally, President-elect Trump\u2019s defense policies signal the potential erosion of foundational constitutional norms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In early November, President-elect Trump nominated Fox News host and former National Guard officer Pete Hegseth<\/a> for Secretary of Defense. Hegseth has been accused of sexual assault<\/a> by a woman during a California GOP woman\u2019s conference, while his comments that women should not serve in combat<\/a> have drawn intense criticism. Like President Trump, Hegseth has bemoaned<\/a> facets of military policy that he perceives as \u201cwoke.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his confirmation hearing on January 14, Illinois Democrat Tammy Duckworth told Hegseth<\/a> that \u201cthe American people need a secretary of defense who is ready to lead on day one. You are not that person. Our adversaries watch closely during times of transition, and any sense that the Department of Defense that keeps us safe is being steered by someone who’s wholly unprepared for the job puts America at risk, and I am not willing to do that.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As troubling, President-elect Donald Trump selected former Congresswoman and military veteran Tulsi Gabbard to serve as the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the official who oversees the American intelligence community (IC). The IC is a vast apparatus<\/a> that includes the CIA, NSA, and military intelligence organizations. With no experience in intelligence, Gabbard has<\/a> furthered Russian propaganda, making her unfit to lead a critical hub for American security. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a New York Times<\/a> piece from November, NYU history professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat stated that \u201c[n]ominating Gabbard for director of national intelligence is the way to Putin\u2019s heart, and it tells the world that America under Trump will be the Kremlin\u2019s ally rather than an adversary.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ben-Ghiat\u2019s comments stem from Gabbard\u2019s propagation of Kremlin talking points. For example, Gabbard iterated that the war in Ukraine could have been avoided if the United States had acquiesced to Vladimir Putin\u2019s \u201clegitimate security concerns\u201d surrounding NATO membership for Ukraine. Gabbard has made these claims despite the unequivocal fact that Putin was the aggressor who himself ordered the invasion in February 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another instance, Gabbard alleged that there are US-funded bio-labs in Ukraine. According to ABC,<\/a> this statement \u201cclosely mirror[s] a false, decade-old Russian conspiracy theory that Washington is secretly funding the development of biological weapons in former Soviet countries, which has been repeatedly debunked by the U.S. and international organizations.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to her bolstering the Russian regime and its war in Ukraine, Gabbard has been dubbed<\/a> \u201cour girlfriend\u201d by Russian state television, which has also, according to the Los Angeles Times<\/a>, \u201cpraised her and even jokingly referred to her as a Russian agent.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Gabbard, Trump\u2019s nomination of attorney and political aide Kash Patel as director of the Federal Bureau of Intelligence (FBI) raises serious alarm about both his qualifications for the post and his past authoritarian rhetoric. Having served in the first Trump presidency<\/a> in different national security-related positions, Patel has promoted retribution<\/a> against Trump\u2019s political opponents. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his 2023 book Government Gangsters<\/em>, Patel, like Trump, perpetrates the deep state myth, going as far as making a list of those who are involved in the conspiracy. According to NBC News,<\/a> Patel referred to these people as \u201ccriminals.\u201d The list stretches from conventional opponents, such as President Biden and Vice President Harris, to \u201clifelong Republicans who served in Trump\u2019s first administration but declined to support his false claims that he won the 2020 election, including former Attorney General Bill Barr and former national security adviser John Bolton.\u201d Their crime? Opposing the President of the United States, a sacred constitutional right that is the basis of our democratic existence. Patel, to quote Edward Murrow<\/a>, has confused \u201cdissent with disloyalty.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

NBC News also reported<\/a> that during a podcast interview with Steve Bannon, Patel explained how he would \u201chandle\u201d the press: \u201cWe\u2019re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections \u2026 Whether it is criminally or civilly, we\u2019ll figure that out.\u201d Although he later tried to sanitize his remarks, Patel\u2019s comments reveal his sinister motivations. He celebrated using the power of the federal government to punish journalists, a sentiment that has no place in the FBI Headquarters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

White House Correspondent for TIME<\/a> Magazine Brian Bennet explains, taken in conjunction with Trump\u2019s threats to use the power of the Justice Department (DOJ) against his political opponents, Patel \u201ccould end up ushering in a new era of politically-motivated revenge.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To that end, the Wall Street Journal reported<\/a> that Trump\u2019s team has considered establishing a \u201cwarrior board\u201d to \u201creview three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.\u201d Along with the nomination of Hegseth as Defense Secretary, there is a danger that President Trump\u2019s administration may \u201cpurge\u201d many senior U.S. military officers. This move would politicize the armed services<\/a>, an institution that has long maintained an apolitical identity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leon Panetta, former secretary of defense for President Barack Obama, reiterated<\/a> that \u201c[t]he military swears an oath to the Constitution, not to a political party, not to the president, but to the Constitution. And we ought to keep that separation in place.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Project 2025: The New Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April of 2022, the Heritage Foundation, an American conservative think tank, published Project 2025<\/a>, a detailed plan in book form that will consolidate power in the executive branch, further perpetuating Trump\u2019s strongman persona, and overall, it will reshape the federal government. The project was created under the assumption that Donald Trump would win the 2024 election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his campaign, Trump tried to distance himself<\/a> from the project when some of its radical ideas faced media backlash. On his social media platform, Truth Social, he posted, \u201cI know nothing about Project 2025 \u2026 I have no idea who is behind it … I disagree with some of the things they’re saying, and some of the things they\u2019re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his 2016 presidency<\/a>, he worked with the Heritage Foundation to enact conservative policies. The chief of staff at the Office of Personnel during Trump\u2019s first presidency, Paul Dans, helped to author the project. So, in fact, it seems like he has strong ties with the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Trump as the current President-elect, the project will be able to move forward with little challenge, no matter how much Trump claims to be distant from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the Project 2025 official website<\/a>, the goals of the plan are clear:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n