{"id":4227,"date":"2020-11-02T13:47:48","date_gmt":"2020-11-02T18:47:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/?p=4227"},"modified":"2020-12-14T12:19:46","modified_gmt":"2020-12-14T17:19:46","slug":"grace-overwhelmingly-believes-joe-biden-will-be-elected-president-will-he-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/grace-overwhelmingly-believes-joe-biden-will-be-elected-president-will-he-win\/","title":{"rendered":"Grace Overwhelmingly Believes Joe Biden Will Be Elected President. Will He Win?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Featured Image:<\/strong> Photo by Lawrence Jackson \/ Biden for President<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As tens of millions of people have already voted with the presidential election just one day away, the Grace Gazette<\/em> recently conducted a poll asking students and faculty, \u201cWho do you believe will win in 2020.\u201d Of the community members anonymously surveyed, 75.9 percent said they believe former Vice President Joe Biden will win the election, 19.5 percent said President Donald Trump, and 4.7 percent said they were unsure.
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Do these results reflect the current election forecasts? According to Nate Silver\u2019s FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast<\/a>, Biden has an 89 percent chance of winning, lowering their projections from 2016, which gave Trump a 30 percent chance\u2014one of the most favorable forecasts for Trump. Even more favorable to Biden, The Economist<\/em><\/a> gives Biden a 96 percent chance. Despite these pollsters overwhelmingly predicting Biden to win, some have offered predictions contrary to the polling orthodoxy. The Trafalgar Group<\/a>, the only nonpartisan group to predict Trump\u2019s victory in 2016, predicts another Trump victory. Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group believes a silent Trump vote is being misrepresented in the polls. Cahaly claimed, \u201cThere are more [shy Trump voters] than last time, and it\u2019s not even a contest.\u201d However, both Silver of FiveThirtyEight and Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report<\/a> expressed doubt about Trafalgar\u2019s methodology. If Cahaly\u2019s predictions are correct, the integrity of pollsters could have irreparable damage. 
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Drawing by Media Editor Evelyn Ward ’21<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One anonymous member of the Grace community responding to the poll seemed to agree with those election forecasts saying, \u201cI think Biden\u2019s going to win, and I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to be particularly close.\u201d This person said that the polls would have to be more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to win, saying, \u201cBiden\u2019s lead in the polls in key swing states is robust enough to survive that kind of hit.\u201d Another person claimed that a landslide victory for Biden would be possible, citing a rise in young voters who \u201cdespise\u201d Trump. They continued, saying, \u201cI do believe Biden can win and perhaps even by a landslide because there are so many young people\/new voters that despise Trump and who are coming out in droves to vote against him.\u201d
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Another member of the Grace community believes Biden will win, saying, \u201che\u2019s gaining support in states that voted republican in 2016,\u201d which the polls indicate to be true. According to the RealClearPolitics average<\/a>, Biden currently has a lead in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin\u2014all states that Trump carried in 2016. 
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Despite this, every state\u2014with the exception of Wisconsin\u2014is within a five percent range. Another person added that he believes Biden will win as \u201cHe only needs to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and he is polling way ahead in those states.\u201d While Biden is polling ahead in those states, it\u2019s not by a significant amount, especially in Pennsylvania. Theoretically, even if Trump was to lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, he could still win the election by picking up Nevada and New Hampshire, which went for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. 
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President Donald Trump addresses the crowd at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN, for his 2020 presidential campaign rally on October 10, 2019. Photo by Nikolas Liepins.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While the general consensus amongst Grace students and faculty is that Biden will come out victorious, not everyone agreed with this assessment\u2014even as Biden supporters. Many of them shared a general skepticism about the polling, citing the 2016 results<\/a>. While the polling was certainly off in 2016, the national polling had Clinton up by about four points, and she did win the popular vote by nearly three million votes. <\/a>One person said, \u201cI don\u2019t trust the polls because of the 2016 election\u2014they can be extremely misleading. I\u2019m hoping Biden wins, although I am not expecting him to [win].\u201d Another person cited the clear enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden, saying, \u201cIf the democrat candidate was someone who people were more enthusiastic about, then I think Biden would win.\u201d Drew Lerner \u201821, a Biden supporter, expressed a lot of reservations about the current polling, saying, \u201cI think Trump will win because of silent voters. I believe you\u2019ll see a repeat of 2016 in that there will be a ton of voters who are in support of Trump but haven\u2019t made their voices heard in the polling. I have no doubt that Biden will win the majority, but unfortunately, that\u2019s not how the electoral process works in this country.\u201d
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Drawing by Media Editor Evelyn Ward ’21<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Due to the massive uptick in voting by mail, the result will most likely not be determined on Election Day. However, Americans should get a general idea of the trajectory of the election when the results begin to come in. The results in Wisconsin are expected at the latest by Wednesday the 4th. Meanwhile, Michigan and Pennsylvania expect results to be finalized by Friday, November 6th.
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While it\u2019s no surprise that the majority of the Grace community overwhelmingly supports Joe Biden\u2014or at least\u2014prefers him over Donald Trump, it was surprising to see that many Biden supporters believe Trump could win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Featured Image: Photo by Lawrence Jackson \/ Biden for President As tens of millions of people have already voted with the presidential election just one day away, the Grace Gazette… Continue reading “Grace Overwhelmingly Believes Joe Biden Will Be Elected President. Will He Win?”<\/span> <\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":4421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[748,200],"tags":[779,180,256,553,399,751,129],"appful":[],"class_list":["post-4227","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","category-recent","tag-election-2020","tag-featured","tag-grace","tag-grace-church","tag-grace-church-school","tag-joe-biden","tag-politics"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9uEnr-16b","jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/biden-87839-scaled.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4227"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4424,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4227\/revisions\/4424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4227"},{"taxonomy":"appful","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gracegazette.org\/wordpress1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/appful?post=4227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}